Catherine Edley [00:00:00]:
What’s ahead for the biggest season of the year. Welcome to the Resilient Retail Game Plan. I’m Catherine Edley and in the next few minutes you’re about to get powerful real world retail strategies from insights shared both from my guests and myself, backed up by my 25 years in the retail industry. Keep listening to learn how to grow a thriving, profitable product business. Let’s jump in with this latest episode, I rounded up my insights from my work as a Forbes.com contributor. I’ve been getting quotes and research from Shopify, Fair, Etsy, Klaviyo, Loyalty lion and many more, as well as looking at the research in terms of what people believe is going to be up ahead for Christmas this year. All of that to give you the big picture on Christmas 2025 and more importantly, what that means for your business. So let’s start with the top line numbers.

Catherine Edley [00:00:58]:
The spending outlook could be described as cautiously confident. According to research by Voucher Codes and global data 2025 festive report, UK shoppers are forecast to spend around 91 billion pounds this Christmas. This is in fact the biggest amount spent in any European country. So we outspend almost everybody else by quite a significant mar. And also important to note is that spend is expected to be up slightly from last year. And by slightly I’m talking about a couple of percentage points. But it’s really worth bearing this number in mind because one of the things that you may hear is nobody’s buying anymore, nobody’s got any budget, all these kind of things, and it can feel like, oh wow, is people just not going to be spending this Christmas? But the data suggests that not only are they going to be spending to the tune of 91 billion, but they’re actually going to be spending slightly more than last year. So gifting is a huge piece of that and that’s expected to be up 2.1% year on year.

Catherine Edley [00:02:04]:
Food and drink is obviously another huge category in Christmas and that is expected to be up around 3.6% year on year. Now, every year around this time I do a Christmas predictions episode and I look at all of the predicted outcomes for Christmas and I can tell you that this is not an exact science. We definitely may see things pan out slightly differently, but overall, broadly speaking, it’s worth saying that the sales are expected to be slightly up on last year. I think it’s also really important to note that if we have a look at the Consumer Confidence Index, the Consumer Confidence Index is a survey that is done by the government that is essentially Asking consumers, do you believe that the economy will improve in the next six months? And then there’s an index that shows whether that percentage is going up or down. It’s important because lack of confidence is one of the major impacts on purchasing. So people just don’t spend as much money when they’re not feeling confident. Now if you look at the consumer confidence index, I mean still see that more people are thinking that the economy won’t improve in the next six months than people will. So still in the negatives, but compared to where it’s been, if you look at the graph, you can Google it and go check out the graph yourself, you’ll see that currently the consumer confidence index is actually okay compared to previous years.

Catherine Edley [00:03:28]:
We’ve had years where we’ve gone into Christmas with a historically low consumer confidence. That was around the times of things like for example, cost of living crisis, when everybody’s bills were going up constantly, when people were really worried about changes to mortgage rates. Not to say that those fears have gone away, but it’s not as prevalent for right now. Now it never helps. They’ve got the budget coming up at the end of November so people are waiting on the wait and see mode. But at the moment what we are seeing is we’re going into Christmas with not people feeling like full of confidence. But even if you look at it across five or even 10 years, we’re in not too bad of a place compared to previous years. So that’s a real positive.

Catherine Edley [00:04:09]:
So we are seeing around 75% of people planning to keep festive spend at under 800 pounds and around 37% say they’ll spend less than last year. These numbers are always really interesting because people’s intentions and what they actually do are quite often different. But actually if only 37% are saying that they’ll spend less than last year, it does suggest that cost cutting isn’t the forefront of consumers minds at this time. We’re also seeing as we have done year on year, upturn in usage of Buy now pay later. So Clearpay, the Buy now pay later provider who are a competitor to Klarna, for example, they’re saying around 35% of people are planning to use Buy now pay later to spread costs. The top line message from the numbers is that people are still spending, they’re looking to spend. In general, most people are thinking they’ll spend slightly more than last year. But budgeting is still really important.

Catherine Edley [00:05:05]:
Planning, budgeting and looking for value. So what does this actually mean for you? So first of all, don’t feel like no one’s going to spend anything. There’s all still to pay for. There’s good reason to suppose that people are out there looking for the products that you sell, that they want to have a good Christmas and that they want to spend. So that’s first thing to consider. The second thing is that as we know, people are still thinking about value. Value doesn’t have to be about discounts. Often it can be about clarity.

Catherine Edley [00:05:37]:
Are you explaining to people how your products really offer great value? If you want to know more about the topic of good value and what customers really consider as good value, then go check out episode number 260 where I talk about the value triangle in more detail. Fair to say that you want to be explaining to your customers how your products are special. You can think about things like smart spending options. So that could be bundles where they get a little bit of a discount from buying multiple products, maybe small upgrades. And we’re going to talk a bit more about loyalty later on, but thinking about how you could offer upgrades or additional items to your most loyal customers. Another theme that is coming up a lot when people are talking about Christmas this year is the impact of AI. So we are beginning to see much more of an impact in AI shaping the customer journey. So Shopify’s holiday report suggests that 64% of customers will use AI for at least one holiday shopping task.

Catherine Edley [00:06:44]:
And Klaviyo suggests that 56% will use it to compare deals, plan purchases or get inspiration. So what they’re moving away from is search engines to chat based discovery. So asking for example, what’s a sustainable candle brand made in the uk? And getting one confident answer instead of dozens of listings. So AI is deciding which brands to showcase and that is based on clarity and credibility more than keyword density. Now this is a huge topic and I’m sure we could film multiple episodes just on the topic of what this means for your online business, but it is something for you to think about. It’s different from SEO, although the two somewhat do feed into each other. It’s all about whether or not AI can effectively find your business. So SEO is ranking of results and you’re competing for clicks, you’re competing for your position and the listings.

Catherine Edley [00:07:42]:
Whereas AI optimization is about being chosen as the single trusted answer, which it’s one of those things, it feels kind of high stakes. If you’re in there as the answer, then that can really transform your business versus if you’re not just not even going to appear because it really wants to give just a small number of answers. A lot of this is about trust. As I said, this is a huge topic, but fundamentally it’s something that you want to start thinking about. It may well be that for many people who are busy in throws of Q4 right now, this is something that you have to really get to grips with in 2026, but definitely something that you want to be aware of. So a few things to note, that things like reviews are going to become more important because people are looking at product data, reviews and then also your brand consistency, not just your keywords. And I it favors structured, high quality information and clear trust signals. So if you’ve been thinking that you want to try and get more reviews for your brand, it’s only going to help you moving forward.

Catherine Edley [00:08:42]:
As we see more and more, not only AI looking for trustworthy brands, but also the consumer being aware that there are more and more scam websites out there. So you want to be thinking about all of the ways that you can really build trust with your customer. So the flip side of AI, a lot of the people that I got information from, that I got either quotes or reports or data from, they were all talking about AI. Yes, about the way that it’s changing the consumer journey. And I think we’re going to be hearing a lot more about that as we move into 2026, but also how retailers can use AI themselves. So Shopify has really gone big with a lot of AI features behind the scenes, but they were talking, for example, particularly about stock forecasting and looking to really protect your margin through using AI analytics. And then of course, as we know, helping with marketing. So drafting marketing copy or campaign ideas, that was something the British Independent Retailers association was very positive about.

Catherine Edley [00:09:45]:
AI and the impact that it can have on for small retailers and how it can help them really level the playing field. And there’s also a lot of chat about chatbots. So how can you use automated chat and AI to help triage not all of your customer queries, but can you make your life easier? Are there ways that you can set up FAQs or helping customers get their tracking information, things like that, which will take the pressure off you as a small business in the run up to Christmas. What do you need to do about it? Well, thinking about how AI can help you, thinking about how you can use ChatGPT to help generate your ideas for your marketing. What are there things that you just wouldn’t get a chance to do if it wasn’t for AI, can you lean into that and then as I said, being aware as we go into 2026 that we’re going to be hearing a lot more about how AI is selecting products to show people and what we need to be doing to make sure that we’re one of the people who gets shown. So again, thinking about building trust, what do you have that is showing the trust and the authority of your business? Moving on then, to talk a little bit more about shopping behavior. So what are we seeing in terms of the timing for Christmas? As soon as we hit November, I immediately started getting emails from people about Black Friday or people are now calling it like Black Friday Month and things like that. So we are for sure going to see a continuation of that with this Black Friday period stretching out.

Catherine Edley [00:11:19]:
So Klaviyo is actually talking about it being say a 16 day window rather than that four day weekend black Friday through to Cyber Monday. We’re also seeing a spreading out of Christmas purchasing. So both as I mentioned through the buy now, pay later, but also we’re seeing, seeing that people did start shopping in October. Like a clear pay estimated that around a third of British people started their Christmas shopping by October. Shopify highlighted as well that one in four were starting to shop before the fourth quarter. And so I think it’s a highlight that the window is just getting bigger, which I don’t think is necessarily a bad thing. It can maybe feel a little frustrating if you are a retailer. It’d be nice if it was maybe a little bit more focused.

Catherine Edley [00:12:07]:
But we’re seeing the mixture of the people who want to start in September and October because they want to help spread the cost and the people who wake up on Christmas Eve and think, oh my goodness, I haven’t got anything for anybody and do a last minute mad dash and we’ve got everybody in between. So I think in a way it’s possibly a good sign that people are starting to shop earlier because it means that the overall spend isn’t going down. It’s maybe just being spread throughout. So people want, they want to have choice. And I certainly have seen a lot of people launching their Christmas ranges earlier this year, which I think is not a bad idea. You can almost stagger it into a couple of different launches. Have your early launch to capture the people who want to spread the cost and a secondary launch when people are feeling more festive. The other thing as well is that people really do want clarity.

Catherine Edley [00:12:58]:
This comes up again and again in a lot of the research. So Shopify talked about how things like clarity on shipping and returns is really important. It all goes back to that trust. Are you being really clear with your customers about if they order it on this date, what date are they going to receive it? Are you able to communicate your delivery cutoffs early and often? And also if we’re seeing more and more people wanting to be slightly less intense, they don’t want that chaos. They don’t want the oh my goodness, you’ve got to buy right now. You can be calm and consistent with your messaging all the way through November and December to just keep reminding people this is what you’ve got, this is what you’ve got to offer. And really tapping into the fact that there are people who want to shop in a peaceful, calm way rather than too much frantic messaging. Try thinking about shifting your messaging.

Catherine Edley [00:13:53]:
Not so much about panic like hurry, hurry to more like reassurance. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. This is when our dates are going to cut off. So if you want to get by this date, make sure you’ve got it by then. And just keeping that calm and consistent messaging and also not being afraid to talk about your Christmas range as it goes throughout this long time period, it can feel daunting because it can feel like Christmas is this one block that you have to talk about repeatedly on repeat. But I think don’t forget that repetition creates trust and it creates repetition creates recognition. If you look at all of the holiday Christmas messaging from all of the big retailers, they repeat them over and over and over again. I mean, how many thousands of times are you going to see the John Lewis ad this Christmas? Probably more than you could possibly count.

Catherine Edley [00:14:40]:
So don’t be afraid to repeat messaging and don’t be afraid to keep talking consistently about your Christmas all the way through November and December to take into account the fact that there are people entering their buying cycle at various different points, product and style trends. This is a really fun part of the Christmas research that I do. I would highly recommend that you check out some of the free resources that you can get from lots of different places. So Etsy do an excellent Christmas forecast which has lots of visual themes. You can head over to Etsy.com and usually under their press releases on their press room you can find the Christmas forecast. Obviously if you’re an Etsy seller, they will no doubt have emailed it to you as well. Definitely go check that out. Also fair.com wholesale marketplace they also do the fair forecast and have some really great visuals.

Catherine Edley [00:15:31]:
And what makes these so nice is that you get to really understand the mindset of the customer overall. And of course, not every customer is going to want to buy into these trends and these esthetics. But it’s often really useful when you’re thinking about your messaging and thinking about your product selection. Ideally you would have been thinking about your product selection earlier than this because for a lot of people this is kind of last minute to make tweaks, but definitely thinking about what the customer wants right now. So in terms of what we’re seeing as sectors, strong sectors from visual soft data is things like home and gardens, sports and outdoors, jewelry and watches. And then we’re also seeing lots of coziness. That’s the best way that I can really sum up everything that I’m seeing from both Fair, from Etsy and from other sources as well. Well, so shoppers are gravitating towards comfort, connection and small celebrations.

Catherine Edley [00:16:28]:
So for example, on Fair, they are seeing Fondue sets up 300% with board games and mahjong in particular flying out or being things that people are really interested in. So cozy, comfort, connection, big themes this year. You know, it’s not rocket science to work out why that is. As soon as things outside the home feel scary and difficult, which, let’s face it, has been a lot of the news this year, then people really like to swing the other way and focus in on making their home their sanctuary and having those, you know, it’s about focusing on what matters. So Etsy are talking a lot about nostalgia as well. So they’re talking about one of my favorite is called Nonna Holiday. So nostalgic kitchens, embroidered linens, vintage bakeware. But they’re also seeing things like supper clubs.

Catherine Edley [00:17:21]:
So elevated hosting playhouse, colorful maximalism and lots of nostalgia. As I said, nutcracker core, as they call it, ballet, pastel nostalgia, velvet ribbons and toy soldier motifs. What this means for you is think about the fact your Customer wants those three Cs. They want coziness, they want comfort and they want connection. So what do you have that really feeds into that? Can you put an email out about ways to make your house cozy, ways to be cozy this winter, ways to really create a lovely atmosphere in your home, or thinking about other things that might be important to them to, you know, stay at home, games, nights or hosting or whatever it might be. You do not have to adopt all of these or even some, some of these. It may not fit with your business, but if you focus on those ideas around comfort and connection, it can help you if you’re just stuck on some ideas or you Want to think of the ways to really connect with your customer then comfort, connection, coziness would be great place to start. So what is also working is focusing in on loyalty.

Catherine Edley [00:18:31]:
So episode 269 of this podcast we spoke to Charlie Casey who’s the CEO of of loyalty software Loyalty Lines. If you want to delve into this topic in more detail then go check out that episode. But loyalty and trust, this is also a really important theme this year. So 77% of shoppers are prioritizing brands that they bought from before and 44% this was interesting. A company called Antavo, they did survey on loyalty trends and they said that 44% of customers are open to paid loyalty tiers for exclusives or or perks. So people are leaning into this idea of trust and connection. So Shopify say that consumers are rewarding brands that are fast, transparent and values driven. So who you are as a business is as important as ever.

Catherine Edley [00:19:21]:
Make sure that you’re talking to customers about that. Making sure that you are reaching out to the people who’ve bought from you. Maybe they haven’t bought from you for a while, but could you re engage them? Because people are looking for people that they trust. So make sure that you’re nurturing existing customers first. As I’ve talked about in episode 270 where I talk about planning promotions for Black Friday, it is really important to think about any offers that you’re doing. Making sure that you are doing something extra and special for your priority customers. What can you do? Early access, small surprises for your best buyers and then also purpose. So many people that I talk to who have small businesses, they have some such strong purpose and vision for their business.

Catherine Edley [00:20:01]:
So many things that they really guiding principles that they use to run their business. Make sure you’re talking to your customers about that. Making sure that they really understand who you are and what you stand for and it helps with that connection. In summary then what to take away from Christmas 2025? Well people are spending. Don’t get pulled into the cycle of doom or the the real negative chatter about oh nobody’s got any money. We are definitely seeing spending in line with last year or even slightly up. People are beginning to turn to AI for guidance and this is only going to shape shopping even more in 2026. So something to start thinking about now.

Catherine Edley [00:20:44]:
But the focus right now needs to be on selling, selling, selling. So that may be a 2026 job. Nostalgia and comfort things that are also just really important emotional triggers for customers right now. So thinking about how you can feed that into what you’re saying to people about buying at Christmas time. Also talking about leaning into your loyalty. Making sure that you’re aware that loyalty and trust are really more than ever driving repeat business in particular, but also driving purchasing. So thinking about all of the ways that you can do demonstrate to your customer either how you can connect with them and get that loyalty or how you can also build trust. So what are the key things to take away from all of this? Number one, as I said, people are spending.

Catherine Edley [00:21:29]:
Number two, they want to be cozy, comforted and connected. So make sure you’re leaning into that motion. Reward loyalty, take care of your best customers and then think about how you can use AI to improve your business and then how you may need to think about it moving forward into 2026. So it’s not about being the loudest necessarily at Christmas 2025. It’s about being clear, about being trustworthy, about being consistent with your messaging and also being connected to your best customers. Thank you so much for listening. Don’t forget, if you like, follow or subscribe, you’ll be the first to know about each new episode that will comes out on Thursday and I’d love to know what you think thought about today’s episode. What are you going to be taking away for your business? Why not come over to Instagram? Say hi at Resilient Retail Club and let me know.